GOP's Daines leads U.S. House race poll, but many don't recognize candidates

2012-09-22T07:00:00Z 2012-09-25T21:37:27Z GOP's Daines leads U.S. House race poll, but many don't recognize candidatesBy MIKE DENNISON Missoulian State Bureau missoulian.com
September 22, 2012 7:00 am  • 

HELENA – Republican Steve Daines has an 8-point lead over Democrat Kim Gillan in the race for Montana’s open U.S. House seat, a Lee Newspapers poll shows – but the poll also reveals that big chunks of voters don’t recognize the name of either candidate.

Of those surveyed by the poll earlier this week, 46 percent said they’re voting for Daines and 38 percent said they favor Gillan. Two percent said they would vote for Libertarian Dave Kaiser of Victor and 14 percent are undecided.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll for Lee Newspapers, surveying 625 registered and likely Montana voters by telephone earlier this week. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

Daines, 50, is a former business executive from Bozeman who ran unsuccessfully for lieutenant governor four years ago.

Gillan, 60, a workforce training coordinator and state senator from Billings, is making her first run for statewide office.

Daines, Gillan and Kaiser are vying for Montana’s only U.S. House seat, which is being vacated by Republican U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg, who’s running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Tester.

The Senate contest between Tester and Rehberg and the race for Montana’s open governor’s seat have been grabbing most of the headlines this election season, while the U.S. House race has been flying largely under the radar.

The poll results reflected that lack of publicity for the U.S. House race, as 49 percent of those polled said they didn’t recognize Gillan’s name and 28 percent said they didn’t recognize Daines.

Interviews with voters who were polled confirmed that the candidates are a blank slate, as far as many voters are concerned.

“It’s something I haven’t really heard a whole lot about; I’m still kind of ambivalent about that one,” said Lorraine Johnson, a retiree from Plentywood. “I’d kind of like to hear what they’re standing for.”

Several voters interviewed said they’d be deciding the race based on party affiliation.

“I haven’t paid much attention to that race, but I know I’m going to vote Democrat,” said Julie Buckley of Butte. “I’m extremely old-fashioned, and I would rather slit my throat than vote Republican.”

Carol Finnicum of Joliet said she’d be voting for Gillan, because “I just feel that she has the interest of people like me, particularly as a woman, in her interest.”

On the other side, Gary Rose of Kalispell said he thinks Daines is “the better-qualified candidate, and, philosophically, I prefer his positions.”

Daines enjoys a considerable financial edge in the race, for he had 10 times the money in his campaign fund as did Gillan in midsummer. He had about $850,000 compared with her $88,000.

Gillan rolled out her first TV ad a few weeks ago, but the Daines campaign put up two of its own ads as well, and said it planned to be on the air with advertisements through Election Day.

One of the few bright spots for Gillan in the poll results was her support among women – they gave her a slight edge, at 45 percent to 43 percent. Independents, however, favored Daines by a 15-point margin, and men who were polled favored Daines by a 19-point margin.

Missoulian State Bureau reporter Mike Dennison can be reached at 1-800-525-4920 or at mike.dennison@lee.net.

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(6) Comments

  1. Watching
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    Watching - September 23, 2012 10:04 am
    Thanks for the information, idiot state. Kim's got my vote!
  2. dsrobins
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    dsrobins - September 22, 2012 2:51 pm
    It will be a shame if Daines wins in November. He is a right wing extremist and will be even worse than Rehberg. Daines in Congress will be very bad for Montana.
  3. Reader_from_Butte
    Report Abuse
    Reader_from_Butte - September 22, 2012 10:51 am
    Kim Gillan voted for House Bill 198 in the closing minutes of the last Montana legislative session. That bill gave sweeping eminent domain powers to private transmission ventures, including foreign ventures. Such ventures can now condemn families' land for private gain. The facilities those ventures build can then go on to reduce property values to the extent that families become "upside down" in their mortgages. On election day, I will restrain my normally Democratic sympathies and leave Kim Gillan's oval unblackened. Gillan = government overreach.
  4. idiot state
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    idiot state - September 22, 2012 8:36 am
    Well here then. Let me help you get to know the candidate. She'd vote pretty much the Democrat party line (though she stresses she's "independent") and would certainly try her hardest, if elected, to make sure OBAMACARE remained the law of the land. She no doubt has the typical ANTI BUSINESS ANTI CORPORATE positions that most liberals in Montana espouse, and she'll work to "invest" in "education" (code for higher taxes for the education unions) and other government workers. She'll no doubt take the side of the EXTREME ENVIRONMENTALISTS when it comes to any energy development, and she'll continue to blather about stuff for women, etc. A vote for her is a vote to continue for the type of "change" that Obama likes..
  5. walter12
    Report Abuse
    walter12 - September 22, 2012 6:42 am
    Montana Dems will take a beating in November and good that they do. No one has even heard of this Kim somebody. Tester is gone because of his stooging for this Obama for four years, and so on. By the way, polls are already heavily sampled in favor of the Dems, so it must be really bad for this Kim.
  6. montanamuralist
    Report Abuse
    montanamuralist - September 21, 2012 10:25 pm
    Sorry to have to say this but the Montana Democratic Party can't seem to put anything in to a race like this and it is really frustrating for those of us who know Daines would not be good for this state..yet no one has heard of Kim...Not the first time this has happened...it is like they write off the House seat every two years...very frustrating for those of us who are independents and know what this right wing candidate would do to us. Very frustrating and the Montana Dems should be ashamed they don't do more for this lone congressional seat...very frustrating...
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