Great Falls looking up

“It’s scary,” said Tom Mathews, president of Mountain West Bank’s two branches in Great Falls. “You’re talking about taking away the F-15s, but really what you’re talking about is taking away some of the best-paying jobs, and we don’t have a lot of those.”

With Malmstrom Air Force Base and both its civilian and military workers accounting for nearly half of the economic base of Cascade County, and a large and growing medical community that serves a broad swath of central Montana, Great Falls enjoys a level of economic stability that may be rivaled only by Helena when it comes to government jobs and maintaining an even keel.

“We’re also a very conservative community, so we never got going as fast as some other towns,” Mathews said. “A 24-lot subdivision is a big deal here. We don’t have builders building 20 spec homes at a time.”

That’s not to say there haven’t been ebbs and flows, particularly as the national economy has shifted over the past 24 months.

Just ask Pam Fossen. Two years ago, Fossen bought a business at what in hindsight might appear to be the worst possible time. With the nation’s financial markets in turmoil and fear rampant among businesses and consumers alike in late 2008, Fossen purchased Double G Engraving and Awards, which provides plaques and trophies as well as a variety of marketing trinkets and other promotional items.

Marketing can be the first place businesses look to cut when times get tight, and among the last places people resume spending once their confidence returns that the economy is on the mend.

By that measure, it appears the bottom may have been reached in Great Falls, with the tide slowly turning favorable again.

“I think it hit a little later here than nationally,” said Fossen. “I pretty much held my own; my sales started to increase a little bit, maybe from July on.”

Fossen knew she was getting into a cyclical business – “Everybody’s kind of watching their dollars, and I can’t blame them. Some people have cut numbers, some have cut the sizes of their orders. It hit here later than it hit anywhere, but that’s the first thing they’re going to cut out is the promotional items.”

The loss of the F-15s to Fresno won’t be a complete washout for Great Falls. The Electric City is expected to become home to a fleet of four C-27J transport aircraft, which will help offset the job losses associated with the fighter jets.

Great Falls continues to build on its reputation as a regional trade center. For several years, the gap in the exchange rates between American and Canadian dollars has been narrowing, and today the two dollars are practically equal.

That means Canadian money goes farther in the U.S. than it used to, which means more Alberta license plates at businesses throughout Great Falls, from the box stores to the Holiday Village Mall to Great Falls International Airport, where many travelers from the north will catch their flights to Arizona and other points in warmer climates.

Beyond health care, Great Falls is also a regional agriculture hub for ranchers, and particularly grain growers throughout Montana’s Golden Triangle. A wet year in Montana led to a strong wheat crop, and droughts and shortages in other parts of the world pushed prices skyward at just the right time for many local growers.

While admitting that losing the F-15s is his biggest concern, Mountain West’s Mathews feels good about the year ahead.

“I think we’ll see more construction in 2011, and I think we’ll continue to see tourism increase locally,” he said. “Great Falls will never be known as a big tourist destination, but we are on the way to a lot of places.”

Mathews said the recession may even prove to be helpful in the long run, and signs of that strengthening may become apparent over the next 12 months.

“I think 2011 will be much better than 2010. I think the consumers that are working are starting to feel a little bit better about their jobs and are starting to spend money again, and in the meantime they’ve been able to pay down some debt, refinance their homes, and save some money and put themselves in a better position.”

At Double G Engraving and Awards, Fossen echoed Mathews’ optimism.

“I think it’s going to be a pretty good year,” she said. “This year has had its ups and downs, but we pretty much held our own. And people in Montana are pretty good about supporting local, so I feel like we’re going to have a good year ahead.”

Reporter John Harrington can be reached at (406) 447-4080 or at john.harrington@helenair.com.